SpaceX and Intuitive Machines: A Tale of Two Catalysts
The space industry is a fascinating and ever-evolving sector, and the recent performance of SpaceX and Intuitive Machines is a testament to its potential. Both companies have seen significant gains in recent days, with SpaceX rising 5% and Intuitive Machines gaining 3% ahead of their respective earnings reports.
SpaceX: A Launch and AI Story
SpaceX's rebound can be attributed to two key factors. Firstly, the successful launch of 24 Starlink satellites to low-Earth orbit from Vandenberg Space Force Base on Tuesday night. This launch extends SpaceX's constellation, which ended Q2 2026 with 12 million subscribers, reinforcing the company's connectivity growth story.
Secondly, the Morgan Stanley analyst note from Adam Jones has sparked interest in SpaceX's AI business. Jones' $300 price target highlights the potential of SpaceX's acquisition of coding platform Cursor and its data-center leasing deals with Anthropic and Alphabet's Google. This recasts SpaceX as an AI infrastructure play, which has likely contributed to the sharp reversal off Tuesday's weakness.
The Polymarket odds suggest a high probability of a green day for SpaceX, with an 89% chance of a positive outcome and a 75.5% conviction in the August 20, 2026 market.
Intuitive Machines: A Mission and Acquisition Story
Intuitive Machines' recent run-up can be attributed to two significant catalysts. Firstly, L3Harris Technologies' selection of Intuitive Machines for the Space Development Agency's AMDT3 mission, disclosed on August 4. This mission will likely provide valuable insights into Intuitive Machines' capabilities and further enhance its reputation in the industry.
Secondly, the company's acquisitions of Goonhilly Earth Station and COMSAT on August 3. These acquisitions will strengthen Intuitive Machines' position in the market and provide a solid foundation for future growth.
Intuitive Machines' Q1 2026 backlog of $1.1 billion is a positive sign, giving investors a clear view of the company's pipeline heading into its earnings report. The options positioning is skewed constructive, with a full-chain put/call ratio of 0.36 across LUNR contracts.
A Sector of Its Own
It's worth noting that the rest of the space complex has remained relatively quiet, with peers like Virgin Galactic, AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, and Planet Labs showing little change. This divergence in performance highlights that SpaceX and Intuitive Machines are trading on their own news rather than a sector-wide trend.
What to Watch
As for what to watch in the coming days, investors should pay close attention to Intuitive Machines' earnings report on Thursday morning. Backlog updates, integration progress on the Lanteris and Goonhilly deals, and any commentary on the company's full-year revenue guidance will be crucial in assessing the company's performance.
For SpaceX, the near-term test is whether today's gains can be sustained and whether the Morgan Stanley thesis will attract follow-on analyst moves. Given the company's post-IPO volatility, a moderate position size makes sense in both names.
In conclusion, the recent performance of SpaceX and Intuitive Machines showcases the diverse catalysts that can drive growth in the space industry. As investors, it's essential to stay informed and analyze each company's unique story to make informed decisions.
